# what is the probability of the sun will rise tomorrow?

what is the probability of the sun will rise tomorrow?

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mayhem
12 June 2011
The chances are very high, but are they 100%? What do you think, and why?
jon.ellis
12 June 2011
Stars, like our sun, are born and die. Some scientists reckon that the Sun will fizzle out in 5 billion years time. So assuming that there isn't some cataclysmic event, then the chances must be very high that the sun will rise tomorrow.
jon.ellis
12 June 2011
The chances cannot be 100% though, I think. As there is a chance (no matter how remote or unlikely) that this cataclysmic event might happen, so the chances I think, must be 99.99% (recurring). What do you think?
jon.ellis
12 June 2011
it is 0.5
hudaiqbal
04 September 2013
Saying tomorrow puts an upper limit on our time scale of 24 hours. This in turn restricts the cataclysmic event to having to occur within our extended solar system. From our understanding there is absolutely no way possible that such an event could occur within our solar system given its current state. So we are left with requiring a physics-breaking event to occur within our solar system.As a result, the probability that the sun will rise tomorrow is 1 with an error smaller than anything you can possibly begin to imagine. I'll whack a very conservative upper limit as 1x10^-100 for you though!
joe_tutor
05 September 2013
In principle there must be a vanishingly small probability that some previously unknown phenomena will stop the Earth turning in the next 24 hrs, and the sun will not rise. But, for all practical purposes, I would say the chance of the sun rising tomorrow is 1.
dr.j
06 September 2013
The probability that someone come up tomoroe is 1. 1 being certain.
carolanneelliott
17 October 2013
The Sun will always rise therefore has a probability of 1
theeconomist
21 October 2013
anything that definitely will happen has a probability of 1..unless there is a major catastrophe and the sun falls!! (so should we say 0.99999?) probability always runs on a scale from 0-1 (using decimals in between) If something could never happen it  would be 0..my children say that Tottenham being at the top of the football table is 0.5? who knows??
Sharon B.
09 November 2013
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scolaire92
11 January 2014
1 because it is a certainty.  All probabilities lie between 0 and 1 where 0 is impossible and 1 is certain or sometimes probabilities are expressed as percentages so that would be 0% to 100%
10:22 on 16/11/13
11 January 2014
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scolaire92
11 January 2014
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scolaire92
11 January 2014
The probability that the sun will rise tomorrow is 1.
Jaspreet B.
22 January 2014
The sun neither rises or sets it only appears to do so because the earth takes one day (24 hours to rotate on its axis). It only appears to an observer on earth that the sun rises and sets. It has appeared to do this for as long as the earth has existed (approx. 4.5 billion years), although of course humans have only been around to see this for around 3.5 million years. Scientists believe that the sun will continue to burn for perhaps  another  4.5 billion years but life on earth will be extinct long before that. As for the probability that we will have the impression of the sun rising tomorrow, on a scale of 0 -1 this would be 1 i.e. it is certain.Tom Hannon
tom.hannon
22 January 2014
99.9% because the sun will probably rise but there is a tiny probability that it could burn out over night which is highly unlikely.
mitchfoster2403
04 February 2014
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Steve R.
04 February 2014
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Steve R.
05 February 2014
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Steve R.
05 February 2014
The dot above the 9 in the picture below meaning "recurring". So it means 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999%
Steve R.
05 February 2014
Although for general high school Mathematics we would say the probability that the sun will rise tomorrow is:1Certain100%
Steve R.
05 February 2014
The best answer so far is from joe_tutor, who discussed physics in our Solar System, and who said, "given the timescale is less than 24 hours, and that there's nothing in our knowledge of the Solar System within the current laws of physics that could kill the Earth or Sun in that time, the probability is 1". Excellent answer. The closest answer so far to being right. But still not quite right. For example, there could be a primordial black hole--completely undetectable using any instrument at our disposal--on an intercept course with the Earth that will strike within 24 hours. To compute the actual probability of this happening, we'd need to know how small such a black hole would need to be in order to be below the level of detection of our current instruments, and how far out and how fast it could be traveling; we'd need to know approximately how common such black holes are in our Galaxy. From these numbers we could compute the spherical volume of space around the Earth in which such a black hole could reside, and divide that volume by the volume of our Galaxy (taking care to decide whether the volume should be around the disk, or the halo, of our Galaxy). The ratio of those volumes would be a starting point on the probability of such a black hole being in our vicinity at all. And finally, we'd need to integrate all possible orbits of black holes that intersect that volume, and compute the fraction of those orbits that intersect the Earth's surface. As an extremely rough estimate of these two numbers... and assuming the black hole is travelling about the same speed at the stars in our galaxy (230 km/s), how far could it travel in 24 hours? About 20 million km. It could easily have a mass far above the largest asteroid (Ceres) and still be undetectable, even by it's gravity. And our galaxy is about 10^18 km across. So the ratio of these distances is (20 * 10^6)/(10^18) = 10^-11; the cube of this is about 10^-33. Then, the ratio of the Earth's volume to this sphere is about (6000 / 20 million) = 0.0003, the cube of which is about 10^-11. So, the probability of this happening is about 10^-11 * 10^-33 = 10^-44. That's just one possible physical phenomenon that could actually occur in the next 24 hours that would destroy the Earth, effectively negating the possibility that the Sun will "rise" on the Earth, which would no longer exist. So although the probability of the Sun *not* rising tomorrow is very very small, it is not zero. And thus the probability of the Sun rising is not 1--though it is very very close to 1.
Wayne Hayes
11 September 2020
The probability that the sun will rise tomorrow is enormously large and from a common-sense point of view the matter is certain. However, the probability that the sun will fail to rise is not zero. It is computable, and from a scientific viewpoint sunrise cannot be guaranteed. The plausibility of the "sun will rise tomorrow" (i.e., the probability of that being true) will then be the proportion of stars that do not "die", e.g., by becoming novae, and so failing to "rise" on their planets (those that still exist, irrespective of the probability that there may then be none, or that there may. The probability of sun rising in the east on earth is a certainty which means that the answer 1/1. It is a universal fact, the sun rises from the east and sets in the west which won't have any other condition to determine the outcome with. It means that, probability can vary from 0 to 1. Now, we know that, sun rises in the east. Therefore, sun rising in west is null event. Therefore, probability of sun rising in west is 0. If the sun doesn't “rise” than that probably means the Earth has stopped spinning. ... If the Sun ceases to hold the planets and other celestial bodies in their orbit, then the planets and asteroids will simply fly away into outer space. Some of them possibly even colliding with one another You may have noticed that the Sun doesn't always rise and set due east and due west. So, where does the Sun actually rise and set? Though it does rise from an easterly direction, it's also slightly more north or south in the sky day by day
Bryan Arias
20 May 2021
The probability that the sun will rise tomorrow is enormously large and from a common-sense point of view the matter is certain. However, the probability that the sun will fail to rise is not zero. It is computable, and from a scientific viewpoint sunrise cannot be guaranteed. The plausibility of the "sun will rise tomorrow" (i.e., the probability of that being true) will then be the proportion of stars that do not "die", e.g., by becoming novae, and so failing to "rise" on their planets (those that still exist, irrespective of the probability that there may then be none, or that there may. The probability of sun rising in the east on earth is a certainty which means that the answer 1/1. It is a universal fact, the sun rises from the east and sets in the west which won't have any other condition to determine the outcome with. It means that, probability can vary from 0 to 1. Now, we know that, sun rises in the east. Therefore, sun rising in west is null event. Therefore, probability of sun rising in west is 0. If the sun doesn't “rise” than that probably means the Earth has stopped spinning. ... If the Sun ceases to hold the planets and other celestial bodies in their orbit, then the planets and asteroids will simply fly away into outer space. Some of them possibly even colliding with one another You may have noticed that the Sun doesn't always rise and set due east and due west. So, where does the Sun actually rise and set? Though it does rise from an easterly direction, it's also slightly more north or south in the sky day by day Great work
Swane Dunlap
20 May 2021